UnsplashThe Braves Will Win 95 Games and Lose in the First Round
Atlanta's most dominant teams keep dying in the first round. A roster held together by surgical tape isn't breaking that pattern.
The Braves are going to be great this year and it won't matter.
I'm 88% sure of this.
The most cursed stat in Atlanta sports: the Braves have made the postseason 10 times since 2010. Eight of those appearances ended in the Division Series or the Wild Card round. In 2022, they won 101 games. Eliminated in the NLDS. In 2023, they won 104 games. Eliminated in the NLDS.
Their World Series? 2021. An 88-73 team. Their worst qualifying record in the entire run.
The Braves don't have a talent problem. They have an October problem. And being great is exactly the thing that betrays them.
So here's my prediction. The Braves bounce back from 76-86 and win 95 games. Sale and Strider anchor an elite rotation. Baldwin builds on his Rookie of the Year campaign. Iglesias and Suarez lock down the late innings. They cruise to a division title over the Mets and Phillies.
Then they lose in the first round. Again.
Because the health bet is insane. Acuna is coming back from his second ACL tear. Strider is in his second season back from an internal brace procedure. Riley had core surgery. Albies broke his hamate. Sale turns 37 this month with a rib fracture in the rearview. That's not a roster. That's a waiting room. And Profar just got a 162-game PED suspension — the everyday DH, gone before Opening Day.
"If healthy" is doing more structural work than any load-bearing wall in Truist Park.
When October comes, the Phillies own a 3-0 all-time postseason record against Atlanta. Three series. Three eliminations. The matchup is a nightmare.
AA pulled a miracle at the 2021 deadline — Soler, Rosario, Pederson, Duvall. Three became series heroes. But that was an 88-win team playing loose. A 95-win team plays tight. A 95-win team expects to win and chokes when the moment gets thick.
Ellis has the full health breakdown. I'll give you the prognosis.
The Braves will be excellent. The Braves will be dominant. The Braves will be home by mid-October.
Bookmark this. Screenshot it. Tell me I'm wrong.
The Tilt
Being great in the regular season is what dooms the Braves in October.
— Dex Ponce
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