Colin Hass-Hill / Eleven Warriors (CC BY-SA 2.0)I was 95% on the Hawks beating Boston. You know what happened. 109-102. I've been more careful with my big numbers ever since.
So when I say I'm 65% on Atlanta beating Cleveland in a first-round series, I need you to understand that's not cautious hedging. That's a real conviction number with receipts.
Receipt one: Jalen Johnson averaged 26.0 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 8.5 assists in two regular-season games against the Cavs this year. Against Evan Mobley. Against the defense people keep telling me is untouchable.
Receipt two: The Hawks are 19-4 since the All-Star break. Cleveland is 50-29 overall, but the team that played Mitchell for 37 points and eight threes back in January is not the team that's been dropping 36-point NAW performances on the Knicks in April.
Receipt three: Donovan Mitchell is questionable tonight with an ankle. I'm not wishing him out of the series — I need the Hawks to beat the full-strength version, not a footnote. But it tells you something about this matchup that Atlanta's ceiling rises when Cleveland's star is compromised.
The Hawks beat Cleveland 130-123 in the NBA Cup. JJ had a triple-double. This isn't a nightmare matchup. This is a developing problem for the Cavs.
65%. Mitchell healthy. Full series. I'm not moving off it.
Tell me I'm wrong.
The Tilt
Mitchell is questionable tonight, Harden is 20.5/7.9 since February, and Jalen Johnson just averaged 26 and 12 in two regular-season games against this team. This isn't a gut feeling. This is a receipts-backed case.
— Dex Ponce
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