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Jalen Johnson Came Back to Something That Already Worked
Something happens in a band when the singer comes back from a sick week. The four people who covered got good at covering. Somebody took the high harmony and kept it, the second song found a new ending, and nobody wanted to say out loud that it sounded different. Then the singer walks back in, healthy, and the first set is a mess.
The Hawks are in that first set.
The maybe got answered twice
On Friday I wrote that Atlanta was holding a place open for a maybe: Jalen Johnson's status had come off Out without arriving anywhere near a return, and the argument was that a maybe is harder to build a night around than a clean absence. Two claims in that piece have answers now, and they point in opposite directions.
The one I got wrong is the easier one to say out loud. I wrote that every habit this depth group built got built in somebody else's gym — that the group which learned to play short-handed had never once done it in this room. It has now done it twice on consecutive nights. Friday, in an NBA Cup group game, Atlanta 139 and Washington 132, Dyson Daniels handing out 12 assists and pulling nine rebounds, Nickeil Alexander-Walker scoring 28 on a perfect 10-for-10 night at the line. Saturday, Atlanta 124 and Brooklyn 121. The home record moved from 1-2 to 3-2. Four straight, 7-4, fourth in the East.
Trae Young played 37 minutes in the Friday one and finished with 23 points, 10 assists, nine turnovers and a minus-13. That thread belongs to Dex, who named Friday as the first night this city would have to watch him work.
Jalen Johnson was not in that box score at all. No row, no line marked did not play. The maybe was a no.
Then he was a yes
Saturday he played 36 minutes and scored 30 on 11-of-17, with seven rebounds and six assists — more points than he has put up in any other game this season, in his first appearance in seven days, Saturday to Saturday, since 28 minutes and 13 points at New Orleans on October 31. The Associated Press, under Charles Odum's byline, reported he had missed three games with a left ankle sprain. Eight appearances in Atlanta's eleven games.
And this is the part that has not been written down yet.
The three games Atlanta played without him were the best basketball this team has played all season. Running the possession estimates off the box scores by hand — my arithmetic, not the league's official ratings — Atlanta scored about 115.6 points per hundred across those three nights, shot 42.3 percent from three, and spent 95, 85 and 91 percent of three different games in front. Saturday: about 109.7, 26.1 percent from three, a lead for 3 percent of the night, a 17-point hole eight minutes into the game, and a fourth quarter taken 36-26 to win it. Daniels had 10 rebounds, seven assists and six steals in that one. Johnson finished minus-2 on a night his team won by three.
What that is, and what it isn't
It is not evidence that the Hawks are better without their best forward. Three games against one is not a finding, it is a description of four evenings. The defensive estimate barely moved across the split — about 111.1 without him, 111.3 with him — which tells you the difference lived in the shooting, and a 26-percent three-point night is variance, not a verdict.
Then there is who was on the other side of it: the run came against Indiana, Washington twice and Brooklyn — clubs currently a combined 13-26. The three Atlanta lost in a row in late October came against Houston twice and Miami, currently 17-12. Brooklyn is 2-7 and still led in State Farm Arena by 17.
What changed between that October stretch and this one is not what the one dated piece of national analysis in this window credits, which is the turnovers Atlanta forces. That number will tell you whatever you want it to, depending on which October you hold it against. Opponents gave the ball away 18.0 times a night across all seven of Atlanta's October games, and 16.3 across the three losses, against 17.0 during the run. A swing of under a turnover a game, in either direction, is not a mechanism.
The things that actually moved are quieter and bigger, and all of this is off the box scores by hand: the three-point shot, 31.7 percent to 38.3; the opponent's field-goal percentage, 51.5 down to 48.6; and the glass, 39.0 rebounds a game to 47.2.
Which is to say the version of itself Atlanta learned in Johnson's absence was built on rebounding and shot-making. Both of those are things he does.
Monday
The Lakers come to State Farm Arena on Monday at seven, 8-2 and carrying four straight of their own. Quin Snyder played nine men against Brooklyn. One of them had been away a week, scored 30 in his first night back, and has spent exactly one game inside the thing the other eight built while he was gone.
Nobody needed rescuing here. That is the complication, not the triumph. The singer is back, the band is good, the first set was a mess, and the next three weeks are about what anybody gives up to make the second one work.
The Tilt
Re-absorbing Jalen Johnson is a harder job than replacing him was.
— Simone Edgewood
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THE BAND AND THE SINGER A timeline of the four evenings Atlanta spent finding out it did not need rescuing. --- OCTOBER 31, NEW ORLEANS --- Jalen Johnson plays 28 minutes and scores 13. Nobody files it as anything. It is the last time he appears in a box score for a week. --- THE ABSENCE --- Three games, a left ankle sprain. The Associated Press, under Charles Odum's byline, is where the three and the ankle come from. Atlanta wins all three: Indiana once, Washington twice. Running the possession estimates off the box scores by hand -- Simone's arithmetic, not the league's official ratings -- Atlanta scores about 115.6 points per hundred across those three nights, shoots 42.3 percent from three, and spends 95, 85 and 91 percent of three different games in front. It is the best basketball this team has played all season, and its best forward is not in the building. --- FRIDAY, THE CUP GAME --- Atlanta 139, Washington 132, in an NBA Cup group game. Dyson Daniels hands out 12 assists and pulls nine rebounds. Nickeil Alexander-Walker scores 28, including a perfect 10-for-10 night at the line. Trae Young plays 37 minutes and finishes with 23 points, 10 assists, nine turnovers and a minus-13. That thread belongs to Dex. Jalen Johnson is not in the box score at all. No row. No line marked did not play. The maybe was a no. --- FRIDAY, ON THIS SITE --- Simone writes that Atlanta is holding a place open for a maybe, and that the group which learned to play short-handed has never once done it in this room. Hold that sentence for twenty-four hours. --- SATURDAY, EIGHT MINUTES IN --- Atlanta is down 17 to Brooklyn at State Farm Arena. Brooklyn is 2-7. --- SATURDAY, THE RETURN --- Johnson plays 36 minutes and scores 30 on 11-of-17, with seven rebounds and six assists. More points than he has put up in any other game this season, in his first appearance in seven days. Eight appearances in Atlanta's eleven games. --- SATURDAY, THE FOURTH QUARTER --- Taken 36-26. Atlanta 124, Brooklyn 121. Atlanta led for 3 percent of the night and shot 26.1 percent from three. Johnson finishes minus-2 on a night his team wins by three. The home record moves from 1-2 to 3-2. Four straight, 7-4, fourth in the East. --- THE CORRECTION --- The sentence held for twenty-four hours is wrong, and wrong twice over. The short-handed group did it in this room on Friday and again on Saturday, on consecutive nights. --- WHAT THE SPLIT IS NOT --- It is not evidence that the Hawks are better without their best forward. Three games against one is not a finding. It is a description of four evenings. The defensive estimate barely moves across the split: about 111.1 without him, 111.3 with him. The difference lived in the shooting, and a 26-percent three-point night is variance, not a verdict. And the four opponents in the run -- Indiana, Washington twice, Brooklyn -- are a combined 13-26. The three Atlanta lost in a row in late October came against Houston twice and Miami, currently 17-12. Brooklyn is 2-7 and still led in State Farm Arena by 17. Opponent turnovers do not explain it either: 18.0 a night across all seven October games, 16.3 across the three losses, 17.0 during the run. A swing of under a turnover a game, in either direction, is not a mechanism. --- WHAT ACTUALLY MOVED --- All of it hand-counted off the box scores. The three-point shot, 31.7 percent to 38.3. The opponent's field-goal percentage, 51.5 down to 48.6. The glass, 39.0 rebounds a game to 47.2. Shot-making and rebounding. Both of those are things Jalen Johnson does. --- MONDAY, SEVEN O'CLOCK --- The Lakers come to State Farm Arena, 8-2, carrying four straight of their own. Quin Snyder played nine men against Brooklyn. One of them had been away a week, scored 30 in his first night back, and has spent exactly one game inside the thing the other eight built while he was gone. --- THE LEDGER --- Nobody needed rescuing here. That is the complication, not the triumph. The singer is back, the band is good, the first set was a mess, and the next three weeks are about what anybody gives up to make the second one work.
The one genuinely unresolved story of the day, and the only one where the form has to do real work: the argument is a sequence, and any compressed form would have to pick a side of it. A timeline lets the three wins without him and the 30-point return sit next to each other in order, which is precisely the source's point -- nobody needed rescuing, and that is the complication rather than the triumph. It also preserves the writer's public self-correction as a dated event rather than a confession, which is what it is. Stands alone: a reader who sees only this gets the absence, the three wins, Friday's box score, the 17-point hole, the 30 points, the 36-26 fourth quarter, the opponent quality that qualifies all of it, and the Monday the question lands on.
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