Martin Perez Is Your Game 1 Starter. Let That Sink In.

Three days ago I told you Anthopoulos needs to make a blockbuster. I was 91% sure.

I'm raising it to 95.

Sale fractured his rib diving for a grounder in the ninth inning of a scoreless gem. The very hustle that makes him elite is what took him out. Sixty-day IL. Done until late August at the earliest. His season line before the injury: 8-5, 2.30 ERA, 92 strikeouts in 13 starts. My 93% Cy Young prediction? Dead. I'm holding the receipt.

Strider has been on the 60-day IL since June 17. His velocity dropped from 97 to under 90. He's not walking through that door before the postseason, and if he does, he's not the Strider you remember.

So who starts Game 1 of the NLDS?

Martin Perez. The guy with the 2.78 ERA who's been steady but has never been confused with an ace. Or maybe Grant Holmes, who's been inconsistent all year. Or Bryce Elder, who was 5-3 with a 2.66 ERA through June 8 and then surrendered 22 hits and 14 runs in his last two starts.

That's the rotation. That's the whole thing.

The Braves are 48-28. Best record in the NL. Seven-game lead. The bullpen has a 2.82 ERA, best in baseball. And none of that matters because bullpens don't start Game 1.

I said it on June 15: go get Skubal. Passan says swing big. Gray in Boston has a no-trade clause, but Atlanta has emerged as a suitor. The deadline is August 3. Forty-two days.

The discourse has shifted from should they trade to how many arms do they need. That shift happened in a week. That's how fast this rotation collapsed.

The 4% doubt: maybe Strider comes back throwing 95 in September. Maybe Elder rights himself. Maybe the bullpen carries them. History says otherwise.

Forty-two days, AA. The clock is loud.

Receipts updated.