Photo by Jsayre64, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia CommonsPoll This.
The Athletic polled its MLB staff on the NL East and 77% picked the Phillies. The Braves are up six games.
Seventy-seven percent.
That's how many of The Athletic's staff picked the Phillies to win the NL East. The Braves are up six games.
I've been filing receipts on this since June. FanSided wrote the warning at 44-21. ESPN gave them 6.7% World Series odds. Now The Athletic looked at a six-game lead and said nah.
How many games up do you have to be?
Yeah, the slump is real. 12-18 in the last 30. The lead shrank from 10.5 to 6. They'll point to one Monday night in Queens and ignore 62 wins.
Here's what kills me. The franchise they're picking to overtake Atlanta? The 1964 Phillies blew a 6.5-game lead in the final 12 games. The most famous collapse in baseball history. That's who The Athletic trusts to close a six-game gap.
The Phillies are 9-11 since July 1. The Braves are still in first. Those two facts coexist with that 77% number.
I'm 83% sure the Braves win this division. Up from 80%. Not because anything changed on the field. Because if 77% of the experts can look at a six-game lead and pick the other team, I'm betting harder on the standings over the takes.
Bookmark this. Come back in October.
Tell me I'm wrong.
The Tilt
If 77% of the experts pick against a six-game lead, they're betting on narrative memory, not math.
— Dex Ponce
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