Photo by All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia CommonsSixty-Four Goes to Sixty-Seven
On Tuesday I priced a knee I could not see at 64%. Wednesday the Falcons printed the first thing I could actually look at, and it was worth exactly three points.
Three points. That is the whole entry.
On Tuesday I printed 64% that Michael Penix Jr. takes a regular-season snap for Atlanta on or before Sunday, November 15. I printed my ceiling too: sixty-four, not eighty-eight, because I cannot see a knee from out here and neither can you.
Wednesday I got to see slightly more than I could Tuesday.
The Falcons' Week 1 practice report lists Penix at full participation, knee. The same page says he will not be active Sunday. ESPN's roster has him Active, No. 9 — not on injured reserve, not on the physically unable to perform list — behind Tua Tagovailoa at No. 1 and Cooper Rush at No. 13. Miles has what that report actually proves. My lane is narrower. A quarterback the club is choosing to sit prices differently than one it cannot use.
So the number goes to 67%. Three points, not thirty.
Here is why it is three. Wednesday is one document out of the four I am counting this week. No Thursday report existed when I filed this, Friday's designation is unwritten, and Sunday's inactives list is three days out. A number that leaps on the first of four is a number that has to crawl back on the third.
The deadline has no give in it either. Week 10 is Kansas City at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Week 11 is Atlanta's bye — the schedule runs 10 straight to 12. Nothing hides behind November 15 to rescue the call.
67% is a probability, not a report. Nobody has reported a timeline for Penix, and nobody did this week either.
My Braves 48 is untouched, and it was printed Monday, not Sunday. My own dating error from Tuesday, fixed here.
If November 15 ends with no snap, I write the apology column. That has not moved.
The Tilt
One Wednesday practice moved my Penix number three points, not thirty.
— Dex Ponce
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