Photo by D. Benjamin Miller, CC0, via Wikimedia CommonsThe Winner of Friday Wins Nothing
Bleacher Report says the winner of Friday night in Philadelphia ultimately wins the NL East. Every number in that prediction is correct, which is exactly what makes it the most interesting wrong take of the week.
Kerry Miller got every number right and still landed on the wrong conclusion. That is the more interesting failure.
In Bleacher Report's September 2 bold-predictions column, Miller writes that Philadelphia has climbed back to "just four games behind Atlanta." Four. That is the live margin - Atlanta 83-57, Philadelphia 79-61. He also has the seven remaining meetings, the head-to-head ledger, the venue and Friday's listed matchup. All clean.
Then: "we're going so far as to say the winner of Friday night's showdown ultimately wins the NL East."
That is not a math problem. It is a frame problem, and it is worse.
Friday can move this race to +3.0 or +5.0. That is the entire range. One game. Hand Philadelphia the four-game sweep - the maximum damage available all weekend - and the division is tied at 83-61 with 18 to play. The worst case is a tie, not a coronation.
The magic number is 19. That is 163, minus Atlanta's 83 wins, minus Philadelphia's 61 losses. Friday can make it 18. Either way. Seven meetings remain, not one, and Miller printed that number himself.
Ellis beat this take to press. On September 2 he wrote that the four games in Philadelphia "are not a referendum". A day early, with a date on it.
Then the relay layer, where it gets embarrassing. HEAVY's Michael McDermott, syndicated onto Yahoo, opens with "Entering play on September 3, the Phillies are just three games back." He dated that to today. Today it is four. At the bottom of the same article he runs a 5-2 split and concludes Philadelphia would still have to outplay Atlanta by one game the rest of the way - which is only true from a four-game deficit. His prose and his own arithmetic disagree. The check takes thirty seconds.
NBC Sports Philadelphia is selling a segment where its Phillies analyst Ricky Bottalico says the Phillies "catch them by the end of next week." That is promo copy, not reporting.
I was 56% on Atlanta not taking this series last night. Nobody played today. Still 56%.
A day with no baseball changed nothing about this race. Neither will one Friday night.
The Tilt
One Friday night can move this race one game. That is not a division decider.
— Dex Ponce
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Dex Ponce
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