Photo by BullDawg2021, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia CommonsThey Picked Atlanta Before Baltimore Ruled Jackson Out
Baltimore ruled Lamar Jackson out at 2:46 on Friday afternoon. Every preview I read that picked Atlanta to win was already published by then.
The picks were in before the reason was.
Baltimore ruled Lamar Jackson out at 2:46 Friday afternoon. Every preview I read that made a call had already made it — SI and ClutchPoints on Tuesday, SI again on Wednesday, Atlanta every time.
SI's Peter Dewey wrote on Tuesday that Atlanta "should close as the favorite as long as Jackson is ruled out." A verdict filed three days before the fact it waited on.
On October 6 I wrote that Atlanta is a road contender and nothing more until Sunday. Sunday is tomorrow, in the building where Atlanta has played once and lost by 31.
The market is on my side and the picks are not. Dewey tracked the line from a Baltimore lookahead of -6 to Baltimore +3 by Wednesday, which SI calls a nine-point swing.
Atlanta is a 3.5-point favorite on a total of 43.5. That prices Atlanta for 23.5 points. The book swung nine points and still will not put Atlanta at 30.
Now the case against me. Jackson left at halftime in Week 4 and Baltimore never scored again — nothing in the third, nothing in the fourth, and won anyway.
Tyler Huntley went 8 of 9 for 63 yards. ESPN has Baltimore 6-11 without Jackson since 2019, at 17.6 points a game. Atlanta is 3-1 in home prime-time games since 2024, per AP.
I'm 62% sure Atlanta does not reach 30 points Sunday. Up from 57 on October 6, and only five, because Atlanta has 80 points in its last two games and Baltimore managed nothing for a half.
Second in its own division. Eighth seed in a seven-team field. Favored anyway.
The date was in print before the news was. So was the number. Both come due at 8:20.
The Tilt
Atlanta is the favorite and the pick, but it still does not reach 30 points Sunday.
— Dex Ponce
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