Thin Isn't Decisive

Burning Chris Sale in relief was the right call Thursday night. It is still the right call this morning, with two national previews building Los Angeles's case out of exactly what it cost.

I put that in writing Thursday night: right, even if Atlanta pays for it Saturday. Saturday is a four o'clock first pitch at Dodger Stadium. My name stays on it.

ESPN's first look names the weakness: "Chris Sale. The Braves aren't deep in reliable starters, as Sale is their only one at the moment." Yahoo gets there from the other side - "the longer series means the Braves won't be able to lean on their ace quite as heavily" - and picks Dodgers in 4. ESPN's simulations go to Los Angeles most of the time.

Both are reasonable reads. Neither is new: ESPN's own feed had "depleted rotation" in a headline on September 28, three days before I filed anything. Nobody caught up to anybody.

Neither preview judges the decision, though. They treat a thin rotation as a condition. I treated it as a price and paid it in an elimination game to get here.

Thin is not the same as decisive. A best-of-five does not ask Atlanta to be deep. It asks Atlanta to steal one in that building and win both at home, and Atlanta went 5-1 against this club in the regular season.

One more thing, and it is not about Atlanta. Every other club hosting a Division Series opener has a starting pitcher posted this morning. Los Angeles does not. Atlanta has not either, but no road club in any of the four series has.

The favorite is the one being quiet about Saturday. Atlanta needs one win in that ballpark. I'll take that without putting a number on it.