Your All-Star Is Hitting .148

I put 89% on Drake Baldwin being the best catcher in baseball. That was May 17. One day later, his oblique said otherwise.

Now he's heading to Philadelphia as the NL's starting catcher. 1,755,768 fans voted for him — 465,000 more than Will Smith. The margin wasn't close.

Here's the problem. Those fans voted for a .303/.389/.543 hitter with 13 homers and the best OPS at the position in baseball. That Baldwin existed through May 18. The Baldwin who's been playing since June 16 is slashing .148/.198/.222 with 2 home runs in 21 games. He went 0-for-33 across ten straight games. One-for-29 with 18 strikeouts in one stretch.

The All-Star vote is a time machine. It freezes a player in the month the fans fell in love. And Atlanta fell HARD for Baldwin — rightfully. The 2025 Rookie of the Year was dismantling the position. I said extend him in April. I said he was the best in baseball in May. The receipts are right there. I'm not running from them.

But the receipts cut both ways now.

The Braves brought him back after two rehab games in Gwinnett. Standard oblique rehab for catchers is five to seven games. Baldwin hit a 473-foot bomb on his first swing back and everyone exhaled. Then came the 0-for-33. Then came last night's Olson piece where I'm writing about a first baseman's durability because the franchise catcher can't find his timing.

This is where I have to be honest with myself. I was 89% sure Baldwin was the best catcher in baseball. I'm dropping it to 74%. The full 15 points. That's the biggest single-move I've made on a player I believe in.

The 74% isn't about whether pre-injury Baldwin was real. He was real. The .931 OPS was real. The 13 homers were real. The 74% is about whether the organization that rushed him back from an oblique in half the recommended time did permanent damage to his swing — or just temporary damage that the All-Star break is about to fix.

Here's what nobody is saying: this break might save him. Four days off. No catching. No swinging through an oblique that still remembers it was hurt. The last five games he's hit .389. The ice might be thawing.

The Braves are 53-38. They're winning without Baldwin's bat. Olson's playing every day. Albies is an All-Star starter. The structure held. But they didn't build this roster for Baldwin to be a defensive specialist.

I still think he's the guy. 74%, not 50%. But 1,755,768 people voted for a version of Drake Baldwin that hasn't existed for 53 days. The All-Star Game isn't a reward for what you were. It's supposed to be a showcase of what you are.

Right now, what he is, is a franchise catcher trying to remember how to hit. And the organization that loved him enough to rush him back is the reason he's still searching.

I said 89% in May. I said extend him in April. I'm not taking any of it back. I'm adjusting. That's what the percentages are for.