ESPN Projected 5.7 Wins. Nobody Asked the Defense.

Warren Sharp called the Falcons soft.

Let that sit.

Sharp's verdict came after Jeff Duncan of The Times-Picayune reported that the Falcons asked the NFL not to schedule them against the Saints on Monday Night Football for the Katrina anniversary. His exact words: a team requesting schedule protection is "sooo incredibly soft."

He's not wrong about the optics. If you want to win the NFC South, you play wherever they put you. The league scheduled the game anyway — Week 4, October 5, New Orleans, MNF. Good. Show up and handle it.

But here's where Sharp and I part ways.

Sharp looked at a leaked scheduling preference and diagnosed a franchise. I looked at the same report and saw an operations request that someone in the front office probably wishes had stayed private. The football team — the one with Walker and Pearce on the edge — didn't ask for anything. They don't care what week it is.

Then there's ESPN.

Mike Clay projected the Falcons for 5.7 wins. Five. Point. Seven. That's a top-five pick. That's "blow it up" territory. That's a number that says this team is bad.

I have been at 85% on the Falcons winning the NFC South since April 26. I have not moved.

Here's why.

This defense recorded 57 sacks last season. Franchise record. Walker and Pearce combined for 16 as rookies. They went from second-to-last in sacks to second overall in one year under Ulbrich's scheme — and Ulbrich was the only coordinator they kept. Both edge rushers are entering Year 2, which is historically the biggest development leap for pass rushers. A.J. Terrell now has his brother Avieon across from him — same high school, same college program, press-man technique since childhood.

The NFC South sent a team to the playoffs last year at 8-9. The Panthers. At eight and nine. Tampa's the division favorite at +115. The Falcons are +400. Clay says 5.7. The over/under is 7.5. Even Vegas thinks Clay is low.

SI's Garrett Chapman published his five takeaways today. The schedule is front-loaded — Weeks 3 through 5 are three straight primetime games: at Green Bay, at New Orleans on MNF, home against Baltimore. That stretch is difficult. Miles wrote about the full schedule three days ago and made the case that it's a referendum on how far this team has actually come. He's right about that.

But look at the back half.

Three straight division games to close the season. Home against Tampa. Home against New Orleans. At Carolina. If this team is 6-8 or 7-7 going into that stretch — and in this division, that is a playoff race — those are winnable games.

Here's the part that should embarrass ESPN. Their own Marc Raimondi published a bold prediction in the same schedule article: the Falcons close with three straight division wins to sneak into the playoffs. Read that again. The same outlet that projects 5.7 wins also published a prediction that they win their final three. Pick a lane.

The schedule is the fourth-easiest in the league by opponent winning percentage. Stefanski produced a playoff team in Cleveland. Bijan Robinson is the best running back in football. Cunningham walked away from this draft with Avieon Terrell, Branch, Daniels, and Perkins — without a first-round pick.

5.7 wins. Soft. Top-five pick energy.

This is the same franchise that jumped from last in sacks to first-page of the league in one year. Same front office that built the best secondary depth in the division in a single offseason. Same QB room where two guys are fighting for the job in a scheme designed to elevate average quarterback play into something functional.

I'm at 85% on the division. I was there before Sharp weighed in and I'll be there after the Week 4 MNF game in New Orleans.

The Falcons are a lot of things. Soft isn't one of them.