Four Hits Is What No Edge Looks Like

The number that was supposed to make Atlanta the comfortable side of this matchup is gone. I counted the games this morning so I could say it tonight without flinching.

The Los Angeles Times had Atlanta at 24-9 against left-handed starters. I counted all 58 games an opposing left-hander started and got 33-25. That is the same club Atlanta was against everybody else, one game out of 58 apart.

Then Tarik Skubal threw six innings and allowed two hits.

Atlanta finished with four hits in thirty-one at-bats. A .129 night, nine strikeouts, and Matt Olson, Michael Harris II and Austin Riley combined to go 0-for-12. Los Angeles leads the series 1-0.

Now the part that keeps me honest. The lazy version of this take is wrong. Both Atlanta runs came off left-handers. Sean Murphy hit Skubal 421 feet to center. Ozzie Albies hit Tanner Scott 432 feet in the ninth. Nobody was neutralized by handedness tonight.

That is exactly the point. The corrected number never said Atlanta would struggle against a left-hander. It said there was nothing there in either direction. Four hits is what nothing-in-either-direction looks like on a night the other guy is sharp.

One more receipt, and it cuts my way. Friday I wrote that Atlanta's thin rotation is not what decides this series. I am keeping it. Dylan Dodd opened and gave three scoreless innings on 47 pitches. The thin rotation did not lose this game. Eleven pitches from Victor Mederos and two swings off AJ Smith-Shawver lost it. The problem was never the front of the staff. It is the handoff.

Blake Snell is listed for Game 2. Another left-hander. The corrected number says that means nothing in particular, and I would rather be right about that twice than lucky about it once.