Thirteen Experts Picked New York. Thirteen Experts Are Wrong.

Every single ESPN expert picked the Knicks. All thirteen. Not one defection.

Good.

I'm 78% sure these Hawks win this series.

Here's what the consensus is sleeping on. New York's bench scores less than 27 other teams. Their starters log heavy minutes because they have to. That's fine in a Tuesday night regular season game. It's a structural flaw in a playoff series where Atlanta's pace — 100.8 versus New York's 96.1 — turns every game into a war of attrition the Knicks aren't built to survive.

The three-point defense is worse. New York allows 38.9 three-point attempts per 100 possessions. Fifth-highest rate in the league. Against a Hawks team that just set the franchise record for threes in a season. Against CJ McCollum, who's played 67 career playoff games and knows exactly what these moments require.

Yes, KAT is a problem. 28.5 and 13.5 on 63% shooting against Atlanta this year. I'm not pretending that away. But the Knicks foul at a top-ten rate and shoot free throws like a team that doesn't practice them. Robinson is at 39% from the line. That matters in close games. And this series will have close games.

The last time every national outlet unanimously picked New York over Atlanta in the postseason was 2021. The Hawks won that series in five. Nobody remembers the betting line. Everybody remembers Trae in the Garden.

Different team. Same energy. Same city that plays harder when nobody believes.

I was at 68% after the clinch. The unanimity of the disrespect moved me to 78%. When the evidence says one thing and every expert says another, I'll take the evidence.

Receipts are open. Come collect in two weeks.