I Said 95 Wins. That Was 12 Hours Ago.

I'm 58% sure the Braves win 88 games. Down from 95. Overnight. One oblique did that.

Spencer Strider felt a pull on March 18 and nobody said a word. They scratched him from Monday's start like it was routine. It wasn't routine. It was the fifth starter to hit the IL before the season starts on Friday.

Five.

Ray Piedmont wrote yesterday morning that Strider was healthy and the internal brace was behind him. That take aged like milk in a hot car. Left oblique strain. His second one. The first was September 2022, back when Strider was still ascending. Now he's descending into another MRI tube.

Here's what kills me. I wrote the Fuentes piece three days ago. Called the kid's emergence "a budget move wearing a development philosophy costume." Fuentes stepped into Strider's slot Monday and threw 4.2 innings of near-silence. 13.2 innings this spring. 18 strikeouts. A 0.66 ERA. He's 20.

The Braves are now running out Sale, Lopez, Holmes, Elder, and a prayer. Chris Sale turns 37 on March 30. That's three days after Opening Day. The rotation isn't thin. It's transparent.

Last year: 76-86. The front office sold a bounce-back narrative built on arms that keep breaking. The gap between the org's confidence and the org's bodies is now a canyon.

I predicted a first-round exit at 95 wins. Cute. Can't lose in October if you don't get there.

Someone tell me I'm wrong. I genuinely want to be.